Malaysian crude palm oil prices
Historical World Bank benchmark data is combined with MPOB Malaysia data, FX references and POE model projections for the current market view.
↻ Updates every hour as new market data and news become available.
CPO outlook for next 7 days is mildly bullish as wide BOPO spread and India festival restocking support prices, but headwinds from peak production, a slipping rupiah, and lower crude oil cap gains. The 4-day stale anchor adds uncertainty.
Net 7-day: ▲ 0.03% from the last actual close ($1,101, 07-30).
| Scenario | Probability | 7-day endpoint | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| base | 50% | $1,109 (+0.70%) | Demand support from BOPO discount is offset by peak production and FX headwinds |
| bull | 25% | $1,131 (+2.73%) | Stronger-than-expected India imports and a supply disruption from dry weather or Indonesia export curbs |
| bear | 25% | $1,075 (-2.38%) | Accelerated Indonesian selling on rupiah weakness and long liquidation by speculators |
- 1▲BOPO Spread — Soybean oil premium over palm at $481/MT, heavily discounted palm supports demand switching.
- 2▲India Festival Demand — News of imports surging July–October ahead of festivals (Diwali) boosts near-term demand.
- 3▼Peak Production Season — Jul–Oct is seasonal output peak in Malaysia/Indonesia, adding supplies.
- 4▲El Niño Development — El Niño (ONI +1.0°C) raises long-term yield risk, supportive for prices now.
- 5▼Indonesian Rupiah Weakness — IDR slipping encourages exports, increasing regional supplies and pressuring CPO.
- 6▼Crude Oil Lower — Brent down 1.9% over 7 days, weakening biodiesel economics and CPO competitiveness.
- 7▼Speculative Long Position Reduction — CBOT soyoil net long fell by 15,493 contracts; crowded long vulnerable to liquidation.
- 8▪Dry Weather in Palm Belts — Below-average 7-day rainfall aids near-term harvesting but may stress trees later.
- 9▪Technical Consolidation — Price stuck between SMA-5/20; RSI neutral at 48, narrow Bollinger Bands suggest range.
- 10▼Stale MPOB Data — June data showed stocks build (+3.7%) and ample 13% stocks-to-use, bearish but 59 days old.
- Indonesian Rupiah Slips As China PMI Signals Slower Manufacturing Growth - Bitcoin World — Bitcoin World, 2026-07-31
- India Seeks Sunflower Oil Alternatives Amid Black Sea Disruptions - ChemAnalyst — ChemAnalyst, 2026-07-30
- CPO Futures Rebound Amid Firmer Crude Oil Prices - bernama — bernama, 2026-07-29
- El Niño and La Niña Explained - Substack — Substack, 2026-07-28
- Indian edible oil imports decline by 30% in June due to drop in palm and soyabean oil shipments - Oils & Fats International — Oils & Fats International, 2026-07-27
- Nepal’s Rs146 billion edible oil exports to India under scrutiny over tariff advantage - The Kathmandu Post — The Kathmandu Post, 2026-07-25
- India's edible oil imports to surge July-October as supplies shrink before festivals - The Economic Times — The Economic Times, 2026-07-22
- Experts urge India to make edible oil import duties more flexible - UkrAgroConsult — UkrAgroConsult, 2026-07-21
7-day outlook combining a statistical baseline with AI analysis of live market signals — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. Current blend: 50% AI / 50% statistical (adaptive, based on rolling accuracy). Anchored on the 2026-07-30 close, 4 days old (MPOB publishes at D+1 and not at weekends); the uncertainty band is widened accordingly. Refreshed hourly. An estimate, not a quote.
Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is generated hourly from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.
Sources: World Bank historical benchmark (CC BY 4.0) and MPOB Malaysia daily data. EUR/GBP/MYR views converted at daily exchange rates. Full data credits.