Weather & Production Risk
Weather is the biggest swing factor in palm oil supply. El Niño brings drought that cuts yields with a 6–12 month lag; heavy rain floods estates and disrupts harvesting now. Here's the current state across the growing belts.
ENSO state
El Niño
Season AMJ 2026
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
+1.0 °C
El Niño threshold ≥ +0.5
Yield implication
Drought risk — lagged yield downside
7-day rainfall outlook — palm belts
| Region | 7-day rain | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Peninsular Malaysia | 18 mm | Normal |
| Sabah | 14 mm | Dry — yield stress |
| Sarawak | 10 mm | Dry — yield stress |
| Sumatra/Riau | 25 mm | Normal |
| Kalimantan | 0 mm | Dry — yield stress |
Updated Aug 03, 2026. Forward 7-day precipitation totals per region.
ENSO / ONI: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Rainfall: MET Norway (Locationforecast), used with attribution. For information only, not a forecast of prices or trading advice. Full data credits.
Watching a weather-driven supply squeeze? Our desk locks in physical palm oil ahead of it.
Get a quote →